IvyArcIvyArc
6

Azahara Palace

6yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 82

Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful in a handicap at Epsom (1½m) last July and a winner over hurdles for this yard at Hexham in the winter. Lightly raced since and feasible to think the drop to 9f was against her when last seen at Hamilton in May. This test more suitable with a tongue strap now added.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 03/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 80 · 1m3f137y Hvy 137 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 80 par3/094OR 802 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 82 · 1m5f61y Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 82 par1 @ Bath 09/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m6f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 82 par9/101OR 824 @ Wetherby 26/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 2m Sft 1544 @ Hexham 10/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 2m48y Hvy 15410/1244 @ Catterick 28/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 110 · 1m7f156y Gd 161 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 110 par4 @ Carlisle 16/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 110 · 2m1f Sft 166 · below its mark16/02/2026 · OR 110 par16/024OR 1102 @ Kelso 21/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 113 · 2m51y GS 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 113 par3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 84 · 1m1f35y Gd 136 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 84 par17/053OR 84projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-17Hamilton36th6th0
2026-04-18Ayr2+1
2026-03-21Kelso27th6th+1
2026-02-16Carlisle42nd3rd−1
2025-12-28Catterick45th6th−1
2025-12-10Hexham41st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0926/1116/0217/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20252nd13/266%80%+0.14
20/09/20257th20/10%54%+0.54
09/10/20259th40/10%33%+0.33
26/11/20252nd5/287%75%-0.12
10/12/20251st85/4089%100%+0.11
28/12/20255th5/287%33%-0.54
16/02/20262nd11/142%92%+0.50
21/03/20267th28/10%57%+0.57
17/05/20266th28/10%29%+0.29