Elsass
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 85
Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Newmarket | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hamilton | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 10/10/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 04/07/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 25% | -0.30 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |