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10

High Point

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77

Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y

#10

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Yarmouth (11.5f, soft) in June, Has finished last in 3 handicaps since joining his new stable but could take a step forward now returned to a longer trip/softer ground for all a leap of faith is understandably required.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 1m6f Goo 133 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 76 par27/094OR 763 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m6f Goo 132 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Huntingdon 11/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 1m7f171y Goo 16011/0344 @ Kempton 25/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 79 · 1m7f218y Sta 138 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 78 · 1m7f218y Sta 136 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 78 par27/054OR 784 @ Yarmouth 11/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 1m3f104y Sft 126 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m5f16y Gd 142 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 80 par1/084OR 804 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m Goo 130 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 136 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 79 par15/084OR 79projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Ripon410th11th−1
2026-08-08Ayr410th11th−1
2026-08-01Hamilton410th11th−1
2026-06-11Yarmouth41st2nd−1
2026-05-27Kempton411th12th−1
2026-03-25Kempton43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0925/031/0815/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 9-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20251st18/15%100%+0.95
17/10/20255th6/168%43%-0.26
11/03/202611th50/10%29%+0.29
25/03/20263rd14/126%50%+0.24
27/05/202611th28/10%0%0.00
11/06/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
01/08/202610th6/168%0%-0.68
08/08/202610th25/10%0%0.00
15/08/202610th150/10%0%0.00