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12

Humble Spark

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 75

Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a lengthy losing run but went very close in Queen Mothers Cup at York in June. Clearly on an exploitable mark but he's compromised his chance with slow starts on each of his 3 starts since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 78 · 1m5f216y Sft 118 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 78 par4/043OR 784 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 78 · 1m4f104y Gd 133 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 77 · 1m5f16y Gd 120 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 77 par3/053OR 773 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 77 · 1m3f15y Gd 117 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m3f39y Goo 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 78 par30/052OR 783 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 77 · 1m3f188y Goo 137 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m5f26y Sft 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 78 par20/062OR 784 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m3f188y Goo 139 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m3f188y Goo 125 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 77 par25/073OR 77projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25York36th6th0
2026-07-10York46th7th−1
2026-06-20Ayr29th8th+1
2026-06-13York32nd2nd0
2026-05-30Carlisle26th5th+1
2026-05-15Hamilton32nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0415/0520/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20264th20/10%75%+0.75
12/04/20264th9/276%77%+0.01
03/05/20262nd5/287%75%-0.12
15/05/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
30/05/20266th17/255%55%-0.01
13/06/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
20/06/20269th8/158%27%-0.31
10/07/20266th7/282%44%-0.37
25/07/20266th13/266%44%-0.21