5
Minstrel Knight
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 83
Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.1
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Doncaster | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Wetherby | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Wetherby | 2 | +1 | ||
| 2025-09-28 | Curragh | BHA86 | 11th | 18th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2024 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 15/06/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 05/07/2025 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 8% | -0.19 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 28/09/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 66% | +0.66 |
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/05/2026 | 13th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |