7
Northwest Passage
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 80
Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stratford | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 17/12/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 26/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 12/04/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 31% | -0.11 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 94% | +0.68 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |