11
Pearl Eye
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 75
Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y
#11
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 70% | -0.20 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 87% | +0.16 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 62% | -0.23 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 58% | -0.24 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 58% | -0.21 |