8
Spirit Of Acklam
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 79
Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Chester | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2024 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 29/03/2025 | 17th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |
| 28/04/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 31/05/2025 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |