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Strassia

5yo Mare · 10-4 · OR 97

Ayr · Tennent's Lager Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 26y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a listed race at Saint-Cloud in 2024 but struggled for this stable last year, returning lame at Newmarket in September. Off 11 months (also hooded) looked rusty when ninth of 13 in handicap at Hamilton (1½m, good) 4 weeks ago and this promises to reveal more down in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength82%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 3
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Chantilly 02/06/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m3f204y Ver 125 · HIGHER CLASS2/06C1C1 @ ParisLongchamp 20/06/2024 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m3f204y Ver 125 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Deauville 03/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m6f200y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS3/08C1C1 @ Saint-Cloud 06/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ ParisLongchamp 05/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m6f200y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS5/10C?C1 @ Saint-Cloud 20/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m3f204y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 102 · 1m6f115y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 102 par11/091OR 1021 @ Newmarket 25/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 100 · 2m Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 100 par2 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 100 · 1m4f15y GS 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 100 par21/082OR 100projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Hamilton29th8th+1
2025-09-25Newmarket16th3rd+2
2025-09-11Doncaster111th8th+3
2025-03-20Saint-Cloud?6th3rd+2
2024-10-05ParisLongchamp?3rd0th+3
2024-09-06Saint-Cloud?1st-2th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/066/0911/0921/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20244th10/147%63%+0.15
20/06/20245th11/271%33%-0.38
03/08/20244th10/147%57%+0.10
06/09/20241st16/116%100%+0.84
05/10/20243rd40/10%71%+0.71
20/03/20256th22/10%29%+0.29
11/09/202511th50/10%0%0.00
25/09/20256th40/10%17%+0.17
21/08/20269th125/10%33%+0.33