8
Colt Rock
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 70
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 18/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |