Dadsnumbronehelpr
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 74
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-10-10 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-12 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |