3
Ellinger
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 75
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 29/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |