6
Estrella Fugaz
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 65
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Charles Town | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 15/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 29/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |