Excitable Boy
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 88
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-07-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-06-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 26/04/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/05/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 12/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 18/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 1/3 | 98% | 33% | -0.65 |