6
Aerate
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |