Alston
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-06-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2024-11-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 15/06/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |