Baddest Good Boy
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-04-09 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 18/05/2025 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 29% | -0.63 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |