1
Gallo De Fuego
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 11/07/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/11/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |