4
Guardian
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 28/02/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |