Lebombo
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-01-24 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 01/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |