Mr Randy
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-17 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 28/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |