2
One Mor Story
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 87
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 24/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 13/09/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 13/01/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |