Stay For The Boom
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 95
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |