Breaking Hearts

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 75

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

40%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-14	Churchill Downs	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-05-23	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-04-30	Churchill Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-03-08	Turfway Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-02-13	Turfway Park	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8
2025-11-08	Churchill Downs	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength83%

Delivery trend +9.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/11/2025	6th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03
13/02/2026	9th	4/1	79%	27%	-0.52
08/03/2026	5th	9/1	53%	33%	-0.19
30/04/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29
23/05/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	60%	+0.34
14/06/2026	9th	33/1	0%	11%	+0.11