Cool American
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 82
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |