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7

Derry Girl

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 79

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turfway Park 22/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/03/2025 · OR 84 par22/03C6OR 84C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m110y Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2025 · OR 85 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 18/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 86 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2025 · OR 86 par18/06C6OR 86C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 86 · 1m110y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/07/2025 · OR 86 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 92 · 1m Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/08/2025 · OR 92 par6/08C5OR 92C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 94 · 1m Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 94 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 30/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 93 · 1m1f 118 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 93 par30/10C8OR 93C8 @ Churchill Downs 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 80 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 80 parC7 @ Ellis Park 08/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 82 par8/08C7OR 82projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Ellis Park?9th8th+1
2026-06-21Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2025-10-30Churchill Downs?5th5th0
2025-09-23Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd-1th+3
2025-08-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th3rd+3
2025-07-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0314/0730/108/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/03/20256th8/158%55%-0.03
22/05/20253rd5/174%60%-0.14
18/06/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
14/07/20252nd25/10%88%+0.88
06/08/20256th11/271%44%-0.27
23/09/20252nd7/282%80%-0.02
30/10/20255th9/276%33%-0.43
21/06/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
08/08/20269th14/126%20%-0.06