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4

Dreamwifedreamlife

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 67

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 18/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 59 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark18/12/2024 · OR 59 par18/12C9OR 59C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 26/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 63 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark26/01/2025 · OR 63 parC6 @ Mountaineer 05/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 66 · 6f Slo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2025 · OR 66 par5/05C6OR 66C6 @ Mahoning Valley 12/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 70 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 70 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 67 · 1m 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 67 par27/03C6OR 67C9 @ Keeneland 24/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 66 · 1m110y 125 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 66 parC6 @ Mountaineer 15/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS15/06C6C5 @ Thistledown 27/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Mountaineer 24/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 68 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 68 par24/08C5OR 68projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2026-07-27Thistledown?8th5th+3
2026-06-15Mountaineer?1st-1th+2
2026-04-24Keeneland?3rd4th−1
2026-03-27Mahoning Valley?3rd1st+2
2026-02-12Mahoning Valley?6th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1212/0215/0624/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/12/20243rd12/137%67%+0.30
26/01/20253rd13/266%50%-0.16
05/05/20254th5/287%57%-0.30
12/02/20266th9/153%17%-0.36
27/03/20263rd8/158%71%+0.14
24/04/20263rd40/10%75%+0.75
15/06/20261st2/799%100%+0.02
27/07/20268th5/174%0%-0.74
24/08/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01