Easter Promise
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 86
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 6.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-02-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 24/10/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 21/02/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |