1
Galatina
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 81
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 9-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |