Heart Spin
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-11-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 21/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 04/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |