2
Love Knicks Hart
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 60
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 13/11/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |