Sussudio
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 86
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |