11
Tiz Wine Time
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 67
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength81%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -30.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 21/05/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |