11
La Noche Negra
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 82
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -60.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |