10
Speight Her Size
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 70
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +55.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |