15
Tapit Nitro
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 66
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 56% | -0.37 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 56% | -0.35 |