IvyArcIvyArc
4

Her Town

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 86

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Keeneland 17/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f 12117/10C9C8 @ Churchill Downs 12/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 7f 120 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 85 par12/11C8OR 85C6 @ Gulfstream 18/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 7f Slo 121 · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 88 par18/01C6OR 88C6 @ Gulfstream 12/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m 123 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 89 par12/03C6OR 89C6 @ Gulfstream 24/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 7f Fas 121 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 86 par24/05C6OR 86projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-24Gulfstream?4th4th0
2026-03-12Gulfstream?4th4th0
2026-01-18Gulfstream?1st1st0
2025-11-12Churchill Downs?2nd4th−2
2025-10-17Keeneland?1st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1012/1118/0112/0324/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength14%

Delivery trend -26.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
12/11/20252nd13/266%83%+0.18
18/01/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
12/03/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
24/05/20264th15/261%50%-0.11