1
High Fashion Kate
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 95
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 16/03/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 10/04/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 01/05/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 05/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 29/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |