Madonna Of Loreto
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 96
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 28/09/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 25/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 16/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 07/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |