Moon Mystique
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-06-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -20.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 30/08/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |