1
Silver Jewel
2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |