3
Candy Constitution
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength35%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 4-9 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |