Macchiato

3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 80

Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-21	Ellis Park	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2025-06-01	Churchill Downs	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength88%

Delivery trend +18.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/06/2025	5th	7/1	63%	33%	-0.30
21/08/2026	7th	12/1	37%	25%	-0.12