Max Is Him

3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 79

Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-01	Ellis Park	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-06-21	Churchill Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-31	Churchill Downs	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +22.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
31/05/2026	11th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
21/06/2026	4th	20/1	0%	70%	+0.70
01/08/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	71%	+0.45