Meanstepper
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-12-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-12-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-10-16 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |