2
Private Show
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-11-24 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2015 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 29/07/2015 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 27/09/2015 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 24/11/2024 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |