6
Throttle
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 66
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength84%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ellis Park | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2025-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +22.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 02/08/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |