Gould's Gold
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 110
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |