Gun Party
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 102
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2026-03-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 30/10/2025 | 9th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |