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8

Malarchuk

5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 107

Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 11/04/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 96 · 1m Fas 118 · beat its mark11/04/2024 · OR 96 par11/04C6OR 96C6 @ Gulfstream 16/01/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 102 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark16/01/2025 · OR 102 parC6 @ Aqueduct 13/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 1m1f Slo 121 · below its mark13/04/2025 · OR 100 par13/04C6OR 100C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 98 · 1m 124 · below its mark09/05/2025 · OR 98 parC6 @ Saratoga 06/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 101 · 1m1f Fas 124 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 101 par6/06C6OR 101C6 @ Saratoga 12/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 102 · 1m1f 125 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 102 parC5 @ Sunland Park 05/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 108 · 1m1f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 108 par5/04C5OR 108C0 @ Santa Anita 25/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 110 · 1m2f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 110 parC0 @ Del Mar 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 107 · 1m2f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 107 par23/08C?OR 107projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Del Mar?6th0th+5
2026-05-25Santa Anita?2nd-4th+5
2026-04-05Sunland Park?2nd1st+1
2025-07-12Saratoga?1st1st0
2025-06-06Saratoga?1st1st0
2025-05-09Belmont At The Big A?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/049/055/0423/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/04/20241st8/1196%100%+0.04
16/01/20255th13/891%20%-0.71
13/04/20253rd9/488%67%-0.21
09/05/20252nd1/297%67%-0.31
06/06/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
12/07/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
05/04/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
25/05/20262nd2/189%75%-0.14
23/08/20266th40/10%50%+0.50